January 5th, 2024
David Adler
@_dadlerThis story was excerpted from the Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The various baseball projection systems are starting to roll out for 2024. That includes one of the biggest: ZiPS, over at FanGraphs, which projects every player's stats for the upcoming season.
The Mariners are one of the teams whose 2024 ZiPS projections have now been released. So let's take a look at the numbers that jump out.
Here are five of the most interesting Mariners player projections for 2024.
1. Julio Rodríguez is projected for the 30-30 club again … and his high-end projections are MVP-level
A player's stat projections are just a baseline for a "normal" season. Many will exceed their projections; others will fall short. But the major takeaway for Seattle's 23-year-old superstar is, J-Rod is primed for a big year.
ZiPS projects Rodríguez for 32 home runs and 34 stolen bases in 2024, which would make the historic start to his career even more historic. No one's ever had multiple 30-30 seasons by age 23, or within the first three seasons of their MLB career.
But here's something even more interesting. ZiPS also does every player's 80th percentile projections -- that is, what a high-end season for that player could look like -- and Rodríguez's are eye-popping: a .302 batting average, .547 slugging percentage, 154 OPS+ (meaning he'd be 54 percent better than an average big league hitter) and 7.0 wins above replacement. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, and they're well within the realm of possibility for J-Rod.
2. Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are all projected for 150-plus strikeouts and an ERA of 3.50 or lower
Seattle's ZiPS projections see the team as a playoff contender in the 90-win territory, and it's because of the pitching staff. Specifically, Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert are all projected to have great years.
Mariners SP projections for 2024
Castillo: 3.27 ERA, 187 K's
Kirby: 3.48 ERA, 151 K's
Gilbert: 3.50 ERA, 168 K's
ZiPS sees the Mariners' top trio as all being in the top-15 range among starting pitchers, led by their ace Castillo. The top pitching comps for Castillo at this stage of his career, according to ZiPS, are Justin Verlander, Dizzy Trout and Bartolo Colon. Kirby's are Jameson Taillon, Noah Syndergaard and Gerrit Cole. Pretty good.
3. Ty France's top hitting comp is Sean Casey
France, who batted .291 with 18 homers in 2021 and was an All-Star with a career-high 20 homers in '22, dropped off at the plate last season, his worst since he got to Seattle. But the projections think he'll bounce back in '24.
ZiPS projects France for a 112 OPS+ this season, which would make him andCal Raleighthe Mariners' best hitters after Rodríguez (withJ.P. Crawfordright behind them).
But the fun part is that France's top hitter comp in the projection system is one of the best contact-hitting first basem*n of his time. At France's age (2024 will be his age-29 season), Casey was an All-Star for the Reds and regularly hitting over .300 with 20 or so homers and showing everyone that first basem*n didn't need to be stereotypical sluggers to be productive.
And that, for the most part, is really the type of hitter France is when he's running hot -- a contact-first hitter who has solid power but is more about just collecting hits.
4. Matt Brash is in line for another 100-strikeout season
Brash's stuff is so electric that it's no surprise he turned into one of the most dominant bullpen arms in baseball in 2023. His 107 strikeouts were second most among pitchers who were exclusively relievers, behind only Orioles closerFélix Bautista, and ZiPS is projecting more of the same out of Brash in 2024.
Brash is projected for 101 K's next season, which would make him just the fifth reliever since 2000 with multiple 100-strikeout seasons within his first three years in the league. The four who have done it:Josh Hader,Chris Devenski,Craig KimbrelandByung-Hyun Kim. And relievers posting back-to-back 100-K seasons just isn't very common in general.
5. Robbie Ray's ERA and strikeout projections are encouraging
Ray probably won't be back until at least around the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but once he returns to the mound, the ZiPS projections -- which include injury information -- think the 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner will again be a valuable contributor to the Mariners' pitching staff.
Ray is projected for a 3.93 ERA and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2024. If Ray posts an ERA under four and strikes out more than a batter an inning down the stretch? Seattle will take that in a heartbeat.
