Astros vs. Mariners Division Series predictions, pitching matchups and what you need to know (2024)

Since Jerry Dipoto’s arrival in Seattle near the end of the 2015 season, the biggest obstacle keeping the Mariners out of the postseason has been the presence of a titan within their own division, the American League West. The Houston Astros won the World Series in 2017 and have won the American League pennant twice more since.

The Mariners weren’t good enough to catch the Astros in the regular season; Houston won 16 more games than Seattle. But the Mariners now have a chance to send a 106-win juggernaut to an early winter, zooming into this American League Division Series off one of the most thrilling comebacks in recent memory. Seattle erased a seven-run deficit in the deciding game of the Wild Card round in Toronto, coming all the way back to set up this matchup.

The Mariners scored 10 runs in that game. The Astros gave up more than nine runs only three times in the entire regular season. Houston has a formidable pitching staff, perhaps the deepest in the sport, a stingy group headlined by future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. He will take the baseball in Game 1, in his first playoff appearance since 2019. At 39, Verlander put forth an excellent season, with a 1.75 ERA and an 0.829 WHIP. His velocity has dimmed, ever so slightly, but his results have not.

His teammates are not far behind him. Framber Valdez is the game’s premier ground-ball specialist. Cristian Javier struck out 11.7 batters per nine innings. The stars of the offense are the same as they’ve been for most of this recent stretch of dominance — Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez. This club may be manager Dusty Baker’s best, last chance to win a World Series. He does not have a contract beyond 2022.

The presence of Baker, a beloved figure, may have tempered some of the vitriol directed toward the Astros in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal. But suffice it to say, the Mariners will be the sentimental favorite in this one. Seattle has just ended a two-decade playoff drought. The roster features young phenoms like rookie sensation Julio Rodríguez and budding folk heroes like Cal Raleigh, the catcher known as “Big Dumper.”

Raleigh’s nickname stems from the size of his caboose. The size of his playoff contributions thus far is almost as expansive. After hitting the walk-off homer that clinched a playoff berth near the end of the regular season, he supplied a critical homer in Game 1 in Toronto. That aided the cause of Luis Castillo, the imposing force at the top of Seattle’s rotation.

Castillo won’t be available untIl Game 2 in Houston. The extra series gives the Astros an advantage. The team had time to rest its arms and prepare for its next challenger. The Mariners have spent plenty of time chasing the Astros over the years. This is the closest they have come to actually catching them. — Andy McCullough

Game times

Game 1: Mariners at Astros, Tuesday at 3:37 p.m. ET, TBS

Game 2: Mariners at Astros, Thursday at 3:37 p.m. ET, TBS

Game 3: Astros at Mariners, Saturday at TBD, TBS

Game 4: Astros at Mariners, Oct. 16 at TBD, TBS (if necessary)

Game 5: Mariners at Astros, Oct. 17 at TBD, TBS (if necessary)

Pitching matchup

You gotta give the pitching advantage to the Astros in Game 1. The presumptive American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander can go up against Luis Castillo on short rest or surging young Logan Gilbert on more than full rest. Either way, the Astros probably have the pitching edge for the bulk of the first game.

When Castillo comes back in Game 2, though, the needle has to point back in the other direction, no? Because the Astros have done a great job developing Luis García, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy — all undervalued on signing day, but improved via all the data, coaching and technology Houston had to offer — but Castillo and his legit four-pitch mix with command have to be the favorite over any of that group, no matter what metrics you look at.

Then it gets murky.

Garcia and Urquidy have been better at home, at least by process stats. They’ve struck out more at home (24.1 percent to 19.8 percent) and their stuff has been better (about five points better by Stuff+, a metric that looks at the physical characteristics of their pitches). Weirdly, their ERA has been a run lower on the road, but Oakland might be helping that effort a little. Either way, both have been up and down over the course of their careers, and you could reason that a Mariners starter could have the advantage.

But Javier has been a revelation. Nearly 150 innings with so many strikeouts, not that many walks — he’s been top-10 in strikeouts-minus-walks this season — and a Stuff+ in the top 15 among starters means that he’s a not-so-secret weapon. And because the Astros have been waiting, they can deploy him at any time. That probably shoves the overall starting pitching advantage toward Houston.

There’s a universe in which Verlander wins Game 1, Javier wins Game 2, and the Astros mix and match their way to quick victory thereafter. Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers, Garcia and Urquidy give the Astros so many options to start games, and also improve their bullpen when they aren’t starting. Pitch your way to the best staff in baseball by at least one metric over the course of the season and you make that sort of narrative super attainable.

For Mariners fans, there’s the truth that the very best relievers in their bullpen can go toe to toe with anyone in the Astros pen. Paul Sewald has the fourth-best Stuff+ in baseball. Andrés Muñoz throws 100-plus with a nasty slider, Penn Murfee brings the funk, and that’s not the end of the conversation. Ryan Pressly has righted the velocity dip, though, Ryan Stanek is in the top 10 by Stuff+, and Rafael Montero can command the ball with velocity.

If you call the pens close, and give the Astros and Mariners each a game early in the series, you could say the pitching is close thereafter. The Astros have better hitting, though, so it’s got to be a clear full-staff, full-series advantage for Seattle, and it’s just not clear that it is. — Eno Sarris

Why the Astros will win

There are basically no holes in the Astros roster. They have a wealth of riches in their rotation, lineup and bullpen. Verlander will be lined up to start two games in the ALDS. The guys in between aren’t too shabby either.

The Astros are seemingly in this position every year. Their opponents haven’t been to the playoffs in 21 seasons.

Houston was second in the AL in home runs and second-to-last in strikeouts. They have a remarkable amount of power hitters who are great at putting the ball in play. It’s hard to be good at both — see the Atlanta Braves.

There are three solid stolen-base threats in the Astros lineup. The bullpen doesn’t have a single reliever with an ERA over 4.00. The group has remained remarkably healthy, needing only 45 players to get through the 162-game season.

The Astros will be heavy favorites in this series, and for good reason. They’ve been there, done that. And will be facing an opponent they beat 12 of 19 times already this season. — Sam Blum

Why the Mariners will win

At this point, why not? The Mariners, back in the postseason for the first time since 2001, aren’t content with just showing up, apparently. That was apparent with their wild-card sweep of the Blue Jays in Toronto.

The Mariners have leaned heavily on their rotation and bullpen this season and that was a major reason they won 90 games. If they are to get past the Astros, that again will have to be the case.

The Mariners are in good shape on the pitching side entering this series, as Logan Gilbert will likely go in Game 1 with Castillo — fresh off a gem in Game 1 of the ALWC — set for Game 2.

The Astros have been the Mariners’ Kryptonite. It hasn’t been a great matchup over the last few years, though the Mariners have held their own as of late. They’ll need to somehow crack the Astros’ pitching staff and maybe get a split in Houston before heading home for the first playoff game in Seattle since 2001.

The offense, inconsistent in the regular season, scored 14 runs in two Wild Card games against the Jays. As they said in Seattle during the team’s playoff run in 1995, “Refuse to Lose.” Maybe they still have some of that old magic left. — Corey Brock

Why the Astros will lose

There’s nothing on paper that suggests the Astros will lose. Then again, there wasn’t much on paper that suggested the Blue Jays would lose to the Mariners, either. There is clearly some tinge of unquantifiable magic about the Mariners, whose season once looked over entering July. They also nearly made the playoffs last year with a negative run differential.

The Astros will absolutely want to get those first two games at home. Being tied 1-1 going into two games at Seattle will be dangerous. That will be a tough environment for any team to win. There hasn’t been playoff baseball there for decades, and even the best performers might struggle with that type of atmosphere.

Valdez has struggled in two of his last three outings and hasn’t gone more than six innings since Sept. 12. If he falters, the Astros could be in trouble. Kyle Tucker is 2-for-his-last-18. If that stretch continues, the Astros could be in trouble.

The margin for error in the playoffs is small. So even if the Astros are the favorites, one unexpectedly bad performance could be the difference. The baseball world will be with Seattle. Maybe that will be enough. — Blum

Why the Mariners will lose

You wouldn’t know it based on the results of the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays — 14 runs over two victories — but this is a team that, at times during the regular season, has had problems scoring runs.

Like, a lot of problems. And going up against the Astros’ pitching, well, let’s just say they’ll have their hands full.

Consider this: In 10 games at Minute Maid Park this season, the Mariners had a batting average of .188 and scored just 26 runs. Simply put, that can’t happen again. The Mariners’ hitters will have to continue to be aggressive early in counts and create traffic on the bases if they are to have a chance in this series.

Will Minute Maid Park continue to be the Mariners’ house of horrors? Remember 2019 when the Mariners went 1-18 against the Astros? They would rather not. The good news is that Seattle has played better in Houston as of late.

Seattle has spent a lot of time looking up at Houston in the American League West Division standings over the years. Can the Mariners get the better of the Astros when it matters most? We’ll see. — Brock

Astros must-reads

• True stories of Dusty Baker: ‘I’m the second-most-interesting man in the world’

• The new Justin Verlander — Those closest to Astros ace have seen him evolve

• Astros built a pitching staff for the long-term by seeking value over flash

• Young Astros fan who tried to ‘steal’ second base recounts his big moment

• What one Yordan Alvarez opposite-field home run tells us about the Astros’ organizational excellence

Mariners must-reads

• Underdog Mariners come back from 7-run deficit, advance to ALDS — ‘We can win any game’

• How Julio Rodríguez became the new “king of Seattle”

• Embrace the Mariners’ big opportunity with the acquisition of All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo instead of lamenting prospect loss

• The most meaningful moments of the Seattle Mariners’ rebuild

• Cal Raleigh’s walk-off home run ends the Mariners’ two-decade postseason drought

(Top photo of Justin Verlander: Troy Taormina / USA Today)