The Yankees are humming along, entering Thursday’s series finale against the Orioles with an MLB-leading record of 28-9. The resurgence of their offense has been the biggest development of their season, but the strength of their pitching staff is propelling them through close games, giving them a record of 8-4 in one-run games, the best winning percentage (.666) of its kind in the American League.
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With the regular season not yet at its quarter-mark, the Yankees’ pitchers still have a lot of work ahead of them. To this point, they’ve given themselves quite a hot start, with the rotation boasting the AL’s best ERA at 2.93 and the bullpen leading MLB with a 2.47 ERA.
This season, the Yankees have used a spot start once — last week in Chicago, when their pitching schedule was jumbled due to rainouts and a doubleheader, not because of injuries or underperformance. They’ve used just 17 pitchers in total, tied with Houston for the second-fewest in MLB. By comparison, the Los Angeles Dodgers have used 26 (18 relievers) pitchers and the Tampa Bay Rays have used 25 (10 starters).
There have been a number of standout performances from the Yankees’ pitching staff — Nestor Cortes Jr., Michael King and Clay Holmes, notably — with some noteworthy slumps, too, from Jonathan Loaisiga and Aroldis Chapman.
It was just a few years ago that seemingly every turn through the Yankees’ starting rotation was an unreliable affair. There were spot starts, meltdowns and a few gems along the way.
The multi-year turnaround has been remarkable. Here’s where the members of the Yankees’ rotation stand after six weeks of regular-season work.
Gerrit Cole
Cole had a dramatic five-out start in Detroit in April, but since then has turned things around. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last five starts, allowing just six earned runs for a 1.67 ERA. After his start against the Tigers, his strike rate, walk rate and strikeout rate have rebounded, indicating that instead of chasing perfection, he’s letting it rip. His 2.89 ERA is top 20 in MLB. The scale of success for Cole is skewed by the expectations on him. Despite some dramatics and some hiccups, he’s once again been one of baseball’s best.
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Nestor Cortes Jr.
What needs to be said about Cortes, other than he has a 1.35 ERA over 40 innings pitched? Let’s see. His 32.5 percent strikeout rate is fourth-highest among qualified starters in MLB. His 0.85 WHIP is third-lowest in MLB, and he’s stranded more than 90 percent of runners. Find a pitching stat and Cortes probably excels in it right now. He’s an early and obvious Cy Young contender, the most reliable pitcher in the rotation and one of the most consistent pitchers across MLB over the last year. It’s no longer a question of whether Cortes can repeat his success, it’s how much better can he get?
Luis Severino
The first year back from Tommy John surgery is usually difficult for starters, who need to learn to trust their arm again while recalibrating to game scenarios and finding reliable ways to execute their pitches despite a significant amount of rust. Severino’s 3.63 ERA is about MLB-average this season. It’s hard to predict what his final stat line will look like, but an average baseline with regular starts and innings contributions within the context of the Yankees’ rotation is a pretty good place to start. The Yankees are managing his workload on a start-by-start basis with an eye on the bigger picture but no specific innings limit for him this year. A solid season would be a highly successful outcome for Severino.
Jordan Montgomery
The Yankees’ left-hander has developed significantly over the past few seasons. He has a 3.06 ERA this season, but is bottom-10 among MLB starters in run support from his offense (2.3 runs per start). As a team, Yankees starters have the best average run support in the AL at five runs per game. Yes, Montgomery has been the anomaly. Although he’s handled it well, it would be valuable for the Yankees to start giving him some cushion so that he could have more opportunities to pitch deeper into games. He’s averaging five innings per start and his season-high is86 pitches in an outing. In the middle innings of a tight game, it can be tough to justify leaving Montgomery out there to deal with soft contact while the Yankees have a strong bullpen behind him. On the other hand, he has been dependable and pretty consistent for the better part of a year, and has probably earned more leeway than he is getting. The Yankees can probably get more out of Montgomery if the offense stops leaving him high and dry.
Jameson Taillon
Taillon’s season looks similar to Montgomery’s, with a 3.28 ERA over seven starts. He’s chopped his walk rate from 7.3 percent over the full 2021 season to 2.6 percent across 35 2/3 innings this season. (He’s faced 151 batters and has allowed just four walks.) His strikeout rate is down as well, from 23.2 percent in 2021 to 17.9 percent this year, leading to a similar rate of K-BB (15.9 percent in 2021, 15.2 percent in 2022). The Yankees are pretty conservative with Taillon’s usage and exposure, and the team is 6-1 in his starts. Like with Montgomery, the Yankees are getting solid contributions from Taillon, but there is probably a higher ceiling there than the one he has reached.
(Photo of Gerrit Cole: Ron Vesely / Getty Images)
